Tuckerman and Huntington Ravine have LOW avalanche danger. All forecast areas have Low avalanche danger. Natural and human-triggered avalanches are unlikely. In Tuckerman Ravine, Lower Snowfields and Little Headwall are not rated due to thin snow cover.
AVALANCHE PROBLEM: Due to the slow refreeze occurring on the mountain right now there is unlikely to be much of a loose-wet or wet slab avalanche problem remaining. There is a warm band of air remaining at around 5,000’ feet so look for warm and potentially unstable snow in any area that has not refrozen yet. A potentially greater problem today will be the difficult travel conditions due to post-holing through the breakable crust combined with the potential for a long fall on a hard snow surface.
WEATHER: Current temperatures are hovering just below freezing on most of the mountain with the exception of the band of warm air lingering around our forecast elevations. The summit is recording wind from the northwest in the 40 mph range with higher gusts. Winds should diminish today as the temperature drops further, ultimately reaching the upper teens F tonight. It looks as if most of the day will be mild and damp with clouds, fog and a trace to an inch of snow to further compromise visibility. Temperatures yesterday reached near 40F at Harvard Cabin with similar temperatures or even warmer temperatures in our forecast area.
SNOWPACK: Yesterday temperatures warmed and dampened the top 20 cm of snow by mid-day. No doubt this heat penetrated deeper into the snowpack by day’s end. The temperature then began to dip below freezing overnight and started to refreeze the wet upper layers. Yesterday, small, wet-loose sluffs were easy to trigger in the areas of softer snow but that has certainly changed with the return to freezing conditions. The past 48 hours brought 3cm of settlement and melting at the shady snow study plot in Hermit Lake, bringing the snowpack total there down to 127cm. Anticipate another melt freeze crust at the surface with possibly a light dusting of snow and a few wind slabs scattered around. Monday night appears to be our next shot of frozen precipitation. Though it appears that it will turn to sleet or freezing rain at the end, we will take whatever we can get.
The Lion Head Winter Route is open and the most direct route to the summit from the east. Please be careful of bridge construction debris near crossover 7 on the Sherburne Trail when skiing or riding.