High temperatures in the low teen’s F, very firm snow surfaces and summit fog may have skiers dreaming about days of elevated avalanche danger today. Though climbers will appreciate the ease of climbing on the firm surface, skiers will be dealing with hard, fast conditions with no chance for softening snow. Light snow showers on light NW winds early this morning have created the illusion of fresh snow but don’t be fooled by the dust on crust effect. More snow showers today may create pockets of wind slab that will serve only to exacerbate the long sliding fall concern. For these reasons, expect low avalanche danger in all forecast areas due to new wind slabs this afternoon. Ice climbers should be aware that a climber fell up to their waist in the icy water behind an ice dam in Odell Gully yesterday. Expect the potential for an ice dam rupture to exist for a while on all ice climbs as spring continues and temperatures swing around the freezing point. Large chunks of ice are also beginning to appear on the floor of both Ravines.

A low pressure system passing to our south and east may generate 2” of snow today on the mountain. This snow will fall on N and NE winds and may build and cross-load small wind slabs in sheltered locations, particularly northern gullies in Huntington and the right side of Tuckerman Ravine. Any wind slabs that build will be on a very firm, and in most places, smooth snowpack. The hard snow surface will increase the likelihood of triggering a small wind slab and raise the consequences if you were to be surprised or swept off of your feet. If you are playing in steep terrain, an ice axe and crampons will make you feel a lot more secure due to the hard and just barely edge-able snow. Though wind slab may be the primary avalanche problem, a long sliding fall is a close second on the list of hazards.  

Wind slab which varies in size and character across the terrain remains our primary avalanche problem. Present in all forecast areas and largest in Moderate rated areas, these slabs should be stubborn to a human trigger but could result in a large avalanche. Cold temperatures which slow bonding between recently formed layers lead us to believe that human triggered avalanches are still possible today, though natural avalanches will be unlikely. Surface snow is fairly firm and supportable in many areas, but softer pockets can be found as well. This spatial variability necessitates careful evaluation of the avalanche problem on your specific route, and that travelling one at a time on and below all avalanche terrain remains appropriate. “Low” avalanche danger does not mean “no” avalanche danger!

Areas of visibly smooth wind slab are our primary avalanche problem today. Moderate rated terrain holds the largest and most continuous of these newly formed slabs which primarily exist in the lower half of our forecast areas. Expect these slabs to be stubborn to touchy though fairly hard, making human triggered avalanches possible and natural avalanches unlikely. The mostly wind textured snow dominant in the rest of our terrain is certainly harder still. It’s important to always remember that “Low” avalanche danger does not mean “No” avalanche danger as pockets of more reactive and softer snow can be found in Low rated terrain. Visibility should facilitate your ability to choose safer travel options, but remember that the cold temperatures and strong wind would elevate the consequences of any accident today.

Strong NW wind created thick wind slabs yesterday. These will be found in greatest concentration in Considerable rated areas. While human-triggered avalanches are more likely than natural avalanches, wind slabs have the potential to run far today. A mix of cross-loading and scouring has taken place on other slopes. Pay close attention to this interplay as it may be easiest to trigger this wind slab on its outer edges. The boundary of wind slab and old surface may be blurry due to newer snow over the old ice crust. Slopes with a Moderate rating today, particularly Central Gully in Huntington, should not be taken lightly. Areas of more reactive snow will likely be found in the most sheltered areas and should be negotiated appropriately. Old icy surface or older firm wind slabs may be found in areas and will make great climbing, but also provide the potential for sliding falls. An ice axe and crampons will be useful in steep terrain today.

Wind slab formed from northerly wind will be the primary avalanche problem this morning before wind shifts NW and begins to build new and potentially larger slabs late today. These new layers will all be very sensitive, likely to avalanche naturally and very likely to be human triggered in High rated areas. If that’s not enough to keep you out of the terrain, storm slabs and dry loose sluffing will be secondary problems forming from the snow currently falling on light wind. This number of avalanche problems is compounded by deeper and potentially unstable slabs formed late last week in much of the terrain. You’re likely to trigger an avalanche in essentially all forecast areas today, and avalanches could be quite large. It’s a great day to enjoy the powder away from avalanche terrain or at the ski area!

Wind slab formed in the past two days covers most of our terrain and is our primary avalanche problem. These smooth surface wind slabs were formed by W to NW wind which either directly loaded or cross loaded most forecast areas. In many areas, this somewhat soft but cohesive surface snow overlies slabs formed late last week that are similar if a little less soft in character. We expect all smooth surface snow to be sensitive to a human trigger today. The connected and consistent nature of wind slab means that such avalanches could be quite large. Upper portions of Left Gully and most of Odell have heavily wind textured snow at the surface that will be fairly hard and more stubborn to a human trigger, hence their Moderate rating. One if not two natural avalanches in Lobster Claw yesterday have reduced snow available to avalanche, though sensitive pockets likely still exist. Moderate avalanche danger means that human triggered avalanches are possible, suggesting that you should evaluate snow and terrain carefully prior to committing to a slope. It’s not likely you’ll be able to avoid the avalanche problem in Moderate rated terrain today. It’s a beautiful day to enjoy the mountains, so carefully evaluate all snow and terrain. Choose to come home safely.