Rain, which could be heavy today, will make wet slabs today’s primary avalanche problem. Today’s precipitation type will be the primary driver of instability in the snowpack. If we receive more plain rain, wetting and warming will decrease stability through the day. A greater proportion of frozen mixed precipitation will have a lesser impact on the stability of our currently refrozen and stable snowpack. Today’s Moderate rating is distinctly different than Moderate ratings issued a week ago. Last week, new snow and wind made small avalanches possible in a number of areas. Avalanches were much more likely and much smaller than the large avalanches which are possible but less likely today. It’s a low probability and high consequence kind of day. If the weather doesn’t keep you out of the mountains, be mindful that though natural avalanches are unlikely today, they could be large and run a great distance.

Wet avalanches due to melting and liquid precipitation will be possible today. These avalanches are likely to be limited to loose-wet or point release type but a larger, wet slab avalanche is not out of the question in areas that previously had thicker layers of dry wind slab. The Lip, Center Bowl, and Central Gully fit this profile and deserve extra caution. A small wet slab or loose-wet avalanche can also serve as a trigger for a larger avalanche or entrain more snow than expected. Mind your runouts today if you venture into steep terrain and protect yourself and your belayer when climbing into larger snowfields. Avalanche concerns will diminish with the return of freezing temperatures later today and be replaced by slide for life conditions once surfaces have refrozen. 

Small to medium sized wind slabs will become more of a threat later in the day as southwest wind increases and loads slopes further. Wind sheltered locations, especially Left and Chute in Tuckerman Ravine, yielded good powder skiing yesterday and also escaped the wrath of the hot April sun. These same aspects may receive more wind loading later today and become increasingly susceptible to triggering. If you are out in the afternoon, be on the lookout for increasing SW wind blowing and cross-loading snow from the alpine into start zones above. Wet loose avalanches may also become a problem, first as sun heats south facing slopes and later as slopes receive some rain or mixed precipitation. These smaller point release type avalanches can have remarkable pushing power as they entrain snow. Monitor your choice of slope for increasingly moist and dense snow and consider the consequences of a slide. Either avalanche type would occur over a bed surface which is icy and hard enough to be a challenge to arrest a fall on.

Wind slab formed since late Sunday is our primary avalanche problem. Generally on the thin side and thus not likely to produce large avalanches, this layer remains possible to human trigger. It will likely vary from stubborn to touchy across the terrain. A secondary avalanche problem is the older and now generally stubborn wind slabs which formed on Friday and Saturday nights, the culprit of our widespread cycle of somewhat small human triggered avalanches over the weekend. This layer is beneath the more recent slabs in some areas and at or near the snow surface in others. Low rated areas have significant old refrozen crust at the surface, presenting a long sliding fall hazard while still holding small pockets of wind slab. It’s certainly a “Low” doesn’t mean “No” avalanche danger kind of day. Moderate rated terrain holds more widespread wind slabs, though it will be difficult for travelers to visually discern thin from thicker slabs as well as the older and more stubborn slabs from the newer and touchier slabs.

The 6” of snow that arrived Friday night on increasing west wind formed wind slab in all forecast areas. This wind slab proved touchy to human triggers yesterday with skier-triggered avalanches in Lobster Claw, Chute, Hillman’s Highway and the Little Headwall. Slab depths were up to 14” thick and while nobody was buried, enough snow was entrained to carry at least five people downhill in the Hillman’s avalanche. Size and distribution of this avalanche problem is aspect driven. East facing slopes (Considerable rated areas) contain more widespread wind slab capable of producing large avalanches. North and south-facing slopes (Moderate and Low rated slopes) contain smaller areas of wind slab that could produce a small avalanche.