A significant warm-up today will make loose wet sluffs the primary avalanche problem on sun exposed aspects. Loose dry sluffs are still possible on steep and shady aspects. We expect these small avalanches which could easily knock you off your feet to occur primarily in the few inches of snow which fell late Saturday and into Sunday. The small and isolated pockets of soft and thicker wind slab which formed from that recent snow could begin to act as a wet slab on south facing slopes and should be on your radar in all terrain. The older, widespread, and hard wind slab that is thinly covered in many areas by the newer snow has been unreactive to human and natural triggers and this trend will likely continue. That said, a significant warming like our sun-exposed slopes will experience today can awaken previously unreactive layers at or near the surface. It’s again a reason that “Low” does not mean “No” avalanche danger, and that travelling one at a time, with your beacon, probe, and shovel, is advisable.

 Also be aware that while the sun will soften some aspects, others will remain hard, and sun softened snow can quickly refreeze with the return of shade. Crampons, ice axe, your ability to use them, and wise terrain choice are all necessary tools to prevent a high consequence long sliding fall. Sun will also warm ice today, making icefall a key overhead hazard to consider and manage.

Snow that arrived overnight has the potential to form wind slab and loose-dry avalanches. Another shot of snow this morning will exacerbate this problem. While wind speeds should remain mild by our standards, the recorded snow has a very light density, making wind transport possible on low wind speed. Wind speeds should increase slightly this morning to above 40mph. This has the potential to load snow into the northern gullies in both ravines as well as cross-load Moderate rated terrain. With the combination of snow density and wind speeds, expect wind slab to be touchy to a human trigger, particularly with the firm bed surface it will reside on. While northern gullies in Huntington are more in the direct lee of today’s wind, a smaller fetch and confined, steep terrain will make loose dry sluffing more of a an issue. If an avalanche occurs, it is likely to be small, but potentially enough to swipe your feet out from underneath you and lead to a long, sliding fall. As the bed surface in all avalanche terrain is firm, arresting a fall today will be difficult.

Wind slab is the avalanche problem today. It is unlikely that a human could trigger the current wind slab in our terrain due to its firm and supportive nature. As the slab itself has a high degree of tensile strength, an avalanche would be large, giving travelers in avalanche terrain a classic low probability, high consequence situation. Small areas of softer slab exist that are providing the isolated pockets of less stable snow. The surface of our snowpack is largely smooth, providing quality skiing, but also the ideal surface for a long, sliding fall. Losing a ski edge or catching a crampon point in steep terrain today will likely have dire consequences. With the possibility of 1” of snow today, dry loose sluffing in extreme terrain should be on your radar as wind speeds are forecast to be on the low side.

Successive storms late last week built an upper snowpack of layered wind slabs on an old melt/freeze crust. These generally firm slabs are gaining stability and becoming unreactive, though isolated pockets that you could still trigger do exist. It’s worth considering that wind slab is a spatially variable avalanche problem by nature as you choose and move through terrain today. Our snow surface is a mix of smooth and wind textured firm wind slab with the scattered pockets of softer slab that pose a greater stability concern, and is providing enjoyable conditions for skiers and climbers alike. This morning looks to provide a continued nice weather window to enjoy the mountain before clouds and wind increase later today.

Wind slab remains our primary avalanche problem today. Generally firm and relatively stubborn to a human trigger, these recently formed surface layers are of most concern in Moderate rated areas where they are particularly large, potentially well-connected, and smooth on the surface. These surface slabs are layered over others formed in the past week, and while we’re not overly concerned with an avalanche initiating deep in the snowpack, it’s worth considering that an avalanche today could ultimately entrain a great deal of snow. It’s a low probability/ high consequence kind of day, with your likelihood of triggering an avalanche not exceeding “possible”. Travelling one at a time through and below avalanche terrain, from safe zone to safe zone, remains a wise and relevant practice on days like today.

Our avalanche forecast today is driven by the legendary, howling winds that hammer Mount Washington. Strong winds overnight and this morning have scoured much of our terrain but have also left firm and stubborn wind slabs in their wake. These wind slabs are the primary avalanche problem today. The moderate rated terrain in the headwall area of Tuckerman Ravine harbors the largest wind slabs with pockets of wind slab elsewhere. In low rated areas these slabs will generally be on the smaller side and should be pretty easily avoidable, though it will require good micro-route finding skills. Though these firm wind slabs will be the primary avalanche problem, the main environmental challenge you’ll face today is cold temps and wind chill. You’ll need the luck o’ the Irish to avoid frost nip if you venture above treeline today.  

An increase in wind speed and a shift in wind direction will keep avalanche danger elevated today. Recent snowfall will be carried by NW winds and build wind slabs in many areas. Natural wind slab avalanches are possible in bigger terrain such as the Lip, Center Bowl, Chute and Hillman’s Highway in Tuckerman Ravine and Central Gully in Huntington. Dry loose avalanches are likely in the steepest areas of both Ravines and will contribute to the likelihood of human triggered avalanches on the approach to steep pitches of ice or rock. Wind slabs should become firm and stubborn with anticipated wind speeds but not before becoming unstable as they build. Staying on low angle terrain, avoiding runouts and traveling one at a time while making careful snowpack assessments will be critical today if you choose to venture into avalanche terrain. Precious little of this low angle terrain exists in our forecast zones, so seeking out lower elevation, less wind effected terrain may be your best bet until wind subsides and visibility improves.