Avalanche Forecast for Wednesday, February 6, 2019

This information was published 02/06/2019 at 7:07 AM.
A new forecast will be issued tomorrow.

NOT THE CURRENT FORECAST

This is an archived avalanche forecast and expired on 02/06/2019 at midnight.


The Bottom Line

Warm temperatures and sunshine will again bring the potential for wet slab avalanches today. If you find yourself sinking into the snow to your boot-tops or more, you have found the avalanche problem. Yesterday’s warm up did not reach beyond 20-30 cm so plenty of dry snow beneath is waiting to get wet and contribute to the possibility of a human-triggered avalanche today. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully for signs of this heating and find another aspect or lower angle slope to ski on. MODERATE avalanche danger exists at all elevations today due to the potential of stubborn but large slabs in isolated areas. Wet slabs and wet loose avalanches will be more reactive in steep terrain where heating is most intense. Be alert for cloud cover and cooling temperatures that could refreeze the snowpack this afternoon and create the potential for a long sliding fall.

2019-2-6 Printable


Mountain Weather

The temperature on the summit reached 34F for the second day in a row yesterday with mixed sun and clouds and temperatures at 3800’ reaching 42F. Temperatures cooled to 12F on the summit late last night before climbing to 25F again at 3am, with warmer temps at ravine elevations. Another warm day is on tap after last night’s brief cool down. Expect temperatures near 30F on the summit with temps likely to be well into the 40’s in the ravines. Relatively light wind on the summit, 20-35 mph, will allow maximum heating mid-day prior to clouds rolling in later in the afternoon. Freezing conditions may return before dark.

Primary Avalanche Problem – Wet Slab

Wet Slab

Aspect/Elevation

Likelihood

Size

Wet slab avalanches are likely to be stubborn today. Softer snow or thinner slabs will make it easier for a crack to propagate. An icy bed surface beneath the most recent snowfall and wind loaded slopes make today’s avalanche problem worse, particularly in areas of previously wind drifted snow. Wet slabs could be large enough to bury a person.

  Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.

Forecast Discussion

Warm air temperatures, a bit of rain and some sunshine started the upper snowpack on the road to becoming isothermal yesterday. The process only made part of the way down into the snowpack where wet snow was above dry snow to variable depths at observed locations. You may have noticed fractures and slides from metal roofs, snow falling off of evergreen tree branches. If you were in avalanche terrain, you would have seen wet snow that could easily form a snowball in one hand, but only in the top few inches unless you dug in a an area where a drainage channel was established. As long as dry snow remains sandwiched between the warming, wetting and weakening upper snowpack and the thick and durable ice crust formed on January 25th, avalanche danger will remain elevated.

Additional Information

The Sherburne and Gulf of Slides ski trails are snow covered to Pinkham Notch.

Snow Plot Information

DateHN24HN24W
(SWE)
Density (%)HSTTotalAir TT MaxT MinSkyPrecipComments
04/13/20
06:15
0 CM 0.1 MM0CM206 CM-3.5 C7.5 C-7.0 COvercastRain
04/12/20
06:20
Trace 1.8 MMTrace216 CM-7.0 C-4.0 C-7.0 CFewNo precipitation
04/11/20
06:20
14 CM 23.1 MM 14%62CM222 CM-8.0 C-6.0 C-8.0 COvercastNo precipitation
04/10/20
06:30
53 CM 49.5 MM 12%NC200 CM-6.0 C-2.0 C-6.5 COvercastSnowView
04/09/20
06:25
0 CM 0.0 MM0CM158 CM-1.0 C8.0 C-4.5 CClearNo precipitation

Avalanche Log and Summit Weather

Thank you Mount Washington Observatory for providing daily weather data from the summit of Mount Washington.

DateMax TempMin TempTotal (SWE)24H Snow & IceWind AvgWind Fastest MileFastest Mile DirAvalanche Activity
05/25/2054 F46 F 0.0 in 0.0 in18.7 MPH44 MPH

260 (W)

05/24/2054 F40 F 8.3 in 21 in8.3 MPH21 MPH

280 (W)

05/23/2055 F43 F 0.0 in 0.0 in15 MPH45 MPH

300 (WNW)

05/22/2055 F40 F 0.0 in 0.0 in37.4 MPH67 MPH

290 (WNW)

05/21/2053 F38 F 0.0 in 0.0 in29.4 MPH59 MPH

280 (W)

05/20/2050 F34 F 0.0 in 0.0 in29.4 MPH59 MPH

280 (W)

05/19/2041 F27 F 0.0 in 0.0 in15.3 MPH36 MPH

100 (E)

05/19/2050 F34 F 0.0 in 0.0 in11.4 MPH25 MPH

30 (NNE)

05/18/2045 F30 F 0.0 in 0.0 in14.7 MPH36 MPH

70 (ENE)

05/17/2040 F30 F 0.0 in 0.0 in17 MPH35 MPH

270 (W)

05/16/2037 F28 F .16 in 0.0 in38.8 MPH101 MPH

310 (NW)

05/15/2042 F32 F .95 inTrace 31.5 MPH95 MPH

250 (WSW)

Please Remember:

Safe travel in avalanche terrain requires training and experience. This forecast is just one tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. You control your own risk by choosing where, when, and how you travel.

Avalanche danger may change when actual weather differs from the higher summits forecast.

For more information contact the US Forest Service Snow Rangers, AMC visitor services staff at the Pinkham Notch Visitor Center, or the caretakers at Hermit Lake Shelters or seasonally at the Harvard Cabin (generally December 1 through March 31). The Mount Washington Ski Patrol is also available on spring weekends.

Posted 02/06/2019 at 7:07 AM.

Frank Carus
USDA Forest Service
White Mountain National Forest