Avalanche Forecast for Sunday, January 27, 2019

This forecast was published 01/27/2019 at 6:58 AM.
A new forecast will be issued tomorrow.

The Mount Washington Avalanche Center will no longer issue daily avalanche forecasts for the 2018/19 season. Read more

The Mount Washington Avalanche Center will no longer issue daily avalanche forecasts for the 2018/19 season. Instead, we will post an updated General Bulletin as needed, in case of significant snow or weather events that might vary from the typical daily changes that come with spring weather. We will also keep you informed about the official closure of the portion of the Tuckerman Ravine Trail from Lunch Rocks through the Lip and Headwall as well as the switch from the Lion Head Winter Route to the summer trail. Observations from the field will continue to be a valuable resource, so please keep submitting photos, videos and observations here and we will do the same. Check the Forecast page for update on Sherburne Trail closures, which are imminent as spring snowmelt continues.

The switch to a General Bulletin does NOT mean that the mountains are now a safe place to ski. The hazards which emerge in the spring are significant and require careful assessment and strategic management. If you have never skied Tuckerman, peruse our Incidents and Accidents page for spring related incidents involving avalanches, long sliding falls, icefall, crevasse and moat falls, and other incidents related to diurnal changes in the snowpack. These will help you understand and plan for these hazards.

The Bottom Line

Wind drifted snow exists on slopes in the lee of a west wind as well as beneath terrain features and sits on top of a robust crust. Incoming snow today will increase both the size and distribution of these wind slabs. A bit of uncertainty exists in the forecast snow totals, but if we receive the upper end of the forecast 2-4”, these areas of wind slab will become possible to trigger by a skier or climber in steep terrain, earning a MODERATE rating. The exception to this is the Northern Gullies in Huntington which have a LOW rating due to their aspect. Until the snow starts to accumulate, the current avalanche hazard may be overshadowed by the potential of long, sliding falls on the icy bed surface. If traveling in avalanche terrain today, a kit complete with climbing equipment for the morning and avalanche rescue gear for the afternoon would not go amiss.

Printable 2019-01-27

Danger Rating by Zone

Mountain Weather

Thursday’s rain transitioned immediately to snowfall, with around 5” of snow falling on the summit and 1.5” at Hermit Lake (3800’) between then and now. Prevailing westerly wind over this same time period has trended downward in speed. Low pressure racing across the region today will drag a warm front this morning followed by a cold front later this afternoon. Both frontal passages are bringing moisture, but the bulk of the forecast 2-4” of snow today will arrive with the cold front this afternoon into evening. Current wind from the south at 35 mph will increase through the morning to around 50 mph, possibly moving toward SW at times, before becoming west as the cold front passes. Another 2” of snow may fall tonight before skies clear tomorrow and temperatures fall below 0F.

Primary Avalanche Problem – Wind Slab

Wind Slab

Aspect/Elevation

Likelihood

Size

Wind slabs have formed from snow showers over the past few days on terrain in the lee of a west wind. These wind slabs are small in size and interspersed with areas of exposed melt-freeze crust. Snow that is likely still available for transport above ravine elevations, combined with the forecast 2-4” today, will continue to build these wind slabs. Today’s shift in wind and eventual increase in speed will push the likelihood of triggering one of these wind slabs toward possible, particularly if we receive the upper end of forecast snow totals.

What is a Windslab Avalanche?

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

Thursday’s rain event has eliminated concerns of weak layers deeper in our snowpack for now. The melt-freeze crust was supportable above treeline yesterday while places in the trees still offered opportunities to post hole. Snow that arrived late on Thursday fell on a wet snow surface, allowing it to bond well to the robust crust that now exists. The likely weak layer today will not be the interface between the crust and wind slab but a density change between layers above the crust. That being said, any fall today, whether caused by a slip and fall or triggering the wind slab, will have dire consequences due to the fast nature of the hard crust. Self-arresting on the bed surface that exists is unlikely; fall prevention is a much better bet for today, performed by equipment and terrain selection.

Additional Concerns

The Sherburne and Gulf of Slides ski trails are snow covered to Pinkham Notch.

Avalanche Safety Information Study

Please contribute to the effort to improve backcountry avalanche forecasts! Researchers in Canada devised a study to better understand how we communicate the avalanche risk, and we need your help. Please fill out this survey. It will take a few minutes, but it will help us as we work on new ways to give you the most important avalanche information.

Snow Plot Information

Additional Snow Plot Records

Hermit Lake Snow Plot

Date	HN24W (SWE)	HST	Total	Air T	T Max	T Min	Sky	Precip
05/20/19 05:30	20.4 MM	0CM	68 CM	11.0 C	12.0 C	3.5 C	Obscured	No precipitation
05/19/19 05:25	0.0 MM	0CM	72 CM	4.0 C	6.0 C	2.0 C	Overcast	No precipitation
05/18/19 05:20	7.6 MM	0CM	80 CM	1.0 C	6.0 C	1.0 C	Overcast	No precipitation
05/17/19 05:25	0.8 MM	0CM	84 CM	4.0 C	10.0 C	0.0 C	Clear	No precipitation
05/16/19 05:20	0.0 MM	0CM	84 CM	1.0 C	1.5 C	0.0 C	Few	No precipitation

Gray Knob Snow Plot

Date	HN24	HN24W (SWE)	HST	Total	Air T	T Max	T Min	Sky	Precip	Comments
05/15/19 06:15	Trace	0.0 MM	0CM	0 CM	-1.0 C	8.0 C	-1.0 C	Overcast	No precipitation	View
05/09/19 05:14	CM	MM		15 CM	-2.2 C	3.9 C	-2.0 C	Clear
05/08/19 06:48	CM	MM		15 CM	-1.1 C	10.6 C	-1.1 C	Scattered
05/07/19 05:23	CM	MM		20 CM	6.7 C	12.2 C	2.2 C	Scattered
05/06/19 05:25	CM	MM		25 CM	2.8 C	10.6 C	2.8 C	Few

Harvard Cabin Snow Plot

Date	HN24	HN24W (SWE)	Density (%)	HST	Total	Air T	T Max	T Min	Sky	Precip	Comments
04/07/19 05:35	0 CM	Trace		Trace	196 CM	1.0 C	2.5 C	-1.5 C	Scattered	No precipitation
04/06/19 05:21	3 CM	4.0 MM	16%	NC	199 CM	0.5 C	6.0 C	-11.0 C	Overcast	Mixed rain and snow	View
04/05/19 05:35	0 CM	0 MM		0CM	198 CM	-9.0 C	-3.5 C	-11.0 C	Clear	No precipitation
04/04/19 05:40	Trace	0.5 MM		Trace	198 CM	-8.5 C	7.5 C	-8.5 C	Broken	No precipitation
04/03/19 05:35	Trace	Trace		NC	198 CM	-4.0 C	7.5 C	-7.5 C	Overcast	Snow

Avalanche Log and Summit Weather

Daily Observations

Additional Records

Thank you Mount Washington Observatory for providing daily weather data from the summit of Mount Washington.

Date	Max Temp	Min Temp	Total (SWE)	24H Snow & Ice	Wind Avg	Wind Fastest Mile	Fastest Mile Dir
05/18/19	34 F	26 F	0.06 in	0.5 in	39 MPH	74 MPH	300 (WNW)
05/17/19	40 F	28 F	.22 in	.05 in	37 MPH	81 MPH	300 (WNW)
05/16/19	32 F	25 F	.03 in	04 in	22.8 MPH	40 MPH	310 (NW)
05/15/19	26 F	20 F	.05 in	.4 in	32.1 MPH	67 MPH	330 (NNW)
05/14/19	28 F	17 F	.2 in	2 in	19.1 MPH	57 MPH	100 (E)
05/13/19	28 F	19 F	.07 in	0.9 in	34.6 MPH	67 MPH	100 (E)
05/12/19	31 F	17 F	0 in	0 in	20.5 MPH	47 MPH	330 (NNW)
05/11/19	32 F	18 F	.1 in	0 in	53.6 MPH	84 MPH	300 (WNW)
05/10/19	44 F	27 F	.85 in	0 in	50.1 MPH	88 MPH	220 (SW)
05/09/19	42 F	20 F	.04 in	0 in	18.6 MPH	44 MPH	190 (S)
05/08/19	27 F	18 F	0 in	0 in	38.3 MPH	65 MPH	330 (NNW)
05/07/19	39 F	26 F	.54 in	0 in	40 MPH	66 MPH	270 (W)

Please Remember:

Safe travel in avalanche terrain requires training and experience. This forecast is just one tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. You control your own risk by choosing where, when, and how you travel.

Avalanche danger may change when actual weather differs from the higher summits forecast.

For more information contact the US Forest Service Snow Rangers, AMC visitor services staff at the Pinkham Notch Visitor Center, or the caretakers at Hermit Lake Shelters or seasonally at the Harvard Cabin (generally December 1 through March 31). The Mount Washington Ski Patrol is also available on spring weekends.

Posted 01/27/2019 at 6:58 AM.

Helon Hoffer
USDA Forest Service
White Mountain National Forest