Avalanche Forecast for Saturday, January 26, 2019

This forecast was published 01/26/2019 at 7:03 AM.
A new forecast will be issued tomorrow.

The Mount Washington Avalanche Center will no longer issue daily avalanche forecasts for the 2018/19 season. Read more

The Mount Washington Avalanche Center will no longer issue daily avalanche forecasts for the 2018/19 season. Instead, we will post an updated General Bulletin as needed, in case of significant snow or weather events that might vary from the typical daily changes that come with spring weather. We will also keep you informed about the official closure of the portion of the Tuckerman Ravine Trail from Lunch Rocks through the Lip and Headwall as well as the switch from the Lion Head Winter Route to the summer trail. Observations from the field will continue to be a valuable resource, so please keep submitting photos, videos and observations here and we will do the same. Check the Forecast page for update on Sherburne Trail closures, which are imminent as spring snowmelt continues.

The switch to a General Bulletin does NOT mean that the mountains are now a safe place to ski. The hazards which emerge in the spring are significant and require careful assessment and strategic management. If you have never skied Tuckerman, peruse our Incidents and Accidents page for spring related incidents involving avalanches, long sliding falls, icefall, crevasse and moat falls, and other incidents related to diurnal changes in the snowpack. These will help you understand and plan for these hazards.


The Bottom Line

Small pockets of wind slab that you may be able to trigger can be found in our terrain, but refrozen icy snow presents an equal or greater travel concern today. Arresting a fall in steep terrain may not be possible. As you choose terrain today, consider the consequences of a long sliding fall, which could be caused by a simple stumble or even a very small avalanche. Crampons, ice axe, and strong ability to use them are essential tools for our current conditions. Refreezes also result in variable conditions on our ice climbs. Brittle ice and ice dams are likely. Avalanche danger for all forecast areas is LOW.

2019-1-25_printable_pdf

Danger Rating by Zone

Mountain Weather

Increasingly cold temperatures and small amounts of snowfall have occurred since Thursday’s significant rain and warming event. Approximately 1” of new snow has been recorded at our snow plots in the past 24 hours. This snow has been affected by W wind blowing up to the 50-70 mph range for several periods. We should see a wind decrease from the current 40 mph by this evening, with temperatures on the summit remaining in the single digits below 0F. Partially to mostly cloudy skies with summit fog may produce a few snow showers today with little if any accumulation. Tomorrow is forecast to be a few degrees warmer, with a weather system arriving to bring 3-5” of snow on S wind.

Primary Avalanche Problem – Wind Slab

Wind Slab

Aspect/Elevation

Likelihood

Size

Wind slabs that are small in size may be reactive to a human trigger, but should be sufficiently isolated in distribution to be easily avoided We expect that west wind has scoured the small amounts of recent snowfall from much of our terrain and built these isolated slabs. This avalanche problem will not be present in most terrain. Realize that a small avalanche in the wrong place, which could simply be a steep and slick snow slope today, can still have big consequences.

What is a Windslab Avalanche?

  Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

1-2” of snow has been recorded at our manual snow plots in the past 48 hours. In the same period, our snowpack has been refreezing in the wake of Thursday’s wetting and warming event. Visibility has been limited at best since before Thursday, but we’re confident that the refrozen snowpack is quite stable. Small wind slabs formed on westerly wind in the past two days are our only avalanche concern. You’ll likely find the refrozen snow to be quite supportable in the alpine, where hard snow preceded the rain event, and a breakable crust at lower elevations. Climbers will find good cramponing conditions, while skiers might be better served by machine groomed slopes today. Be on the lookout for any drifts of new snow that are today’s avalanche problem and be sure to respect the slide for life conditions.

Additional Concerns

The Sherburne and Gulf of Slides ski trails are icy but with coverage to Pinkham Notch.

Avalanche Safety Information Study

Please contribute to the effort to improve backcountry avalanche forecasts! Researchers in Canada devised a study to better understand how we communicate the avalanche risk, and we need your help. Please fill out this survey. It will take a few minutes, but it will help us as we work on new ways to give you the most important avalanche information.

Snow Plot Information

DateHN24HN24W
(SWE)
Density (%)HSTTotalAir TT MaxT MinSkyPrecipComments
05/22/19
05:25
Trace 6.2 MMTrace60 CM0.5 C2.0 C-1.0 CClearNo precipitationView
05/21/19
05:25
0 CM 4.2 MM0CM60 CM2.0 C15.0 C2.0 COvercastNo precipitation
05/20/19
05:30
0 CM 20.4 MM0CM68 CM11.0 C12.0 C3.5 CObscuredNo precipitation
05/19/19
05:25
0 CM 0.0 MM0CM72 CM4.0 C6.0 C2.0 COvercastNo precipitation
05/18/19
05:20
0 CM 7.6 MM0CM80 CM1.0 C6.0 C1.0 COvercastNo precipitation

Avalanche Log and Summit Weather

Daily Observations


Thank you Mount Washington Observatory for providing daily weather data from the summit of Mount Washington.

DateMax TempMin TempTotal (SWE)24H Snow & IceWind AvgWind Fastest MileFastest Mile DirAvalanche Activity
05/21/1934 F23 F .57 in 1.9 in73 MPH135 MPH

330 (NNW)

05/20/1951 F33 F 0.57 in 0.0 in48 MPH82 MPH

250 (WSW)

05/19/1951 F34 F .6 in 0 in34.2 MPH66 MPH

250 (WSW)

05/18/1934 F26 F 0.06 in 0.5 in39 MPH74 MPH

300 (WNW)

05/17/1940 F28 F .22 in .05 in37 MPH81 MPH

300 (WNW)

05/16/1932 F25 F .03 in 04 in22.8 MPH40 MPH

310 (NW)

05/15/1926 F20 F .05 in .4 in32.1 MPH67 MPH

330 (NNW)

05/14/1928 F17 F .2 in 2 in19.1 MPH57 MPH

100 (E)

05/13/1928 F19 F .07 in 0.9 in34.6 MPH67 MPH

100 (E)

05/12/1931 F17 F 0 in 0 in20.5 MPH47 MPH

330 (NNW)

05/11/1932 F18 F .1 in 0 in53.6 MPH84 MPH

300 (WNW)

05/10/1944 F27 F .85 in 0 in50.1 MPH88 MPH

220 (SW)

Please Remember:

Safe travel in avalanche terrain requires training and experience. This forecast is just one tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. You control your own risk by choosing where, when, and how you travel.

Avalanche danger may change when actual weather differs from the higher summits forecast.

For more information contact the US Forest Service Snow Rangers, AMC visitor services staff at the Pinkham Notch Visitor Center, or the caretakers at Hermit Lake Shelters or seasonally at the Harvard Cabin (generally December 1 through March 31). The Mount Washington Ski Patrol is also available on spring weekends.

Posted 01/26/2019 at 7:03 AM.

Ryan Matz, Snow Ranger
USDA Forest Service
White Mountain National Forest