Posted 8:23a.m., Monday, January 31, 2011
Tuckerman Ravine: The Sluice, Lip, Center Bowl, and Hillman’s Highway have Considerable avalanche danger today. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are likely. The Lobster Claw, Right Gully, Chute, Left Gully and Lower Snowfields have Moderate avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible. The Little Headwall has Low avalanche danger. Natural and human triggered avalanches are unlikely.
Huntington Ravine: All forecast areas have Moderate avalanche danger. Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible. The only exception to this rating is the Escape Hatch which has Low avalanche danger. Natural and human triggered avalanches are unlikely in this area.
I could get used to these clear blue sky mornings, but I don’t think I’ll ever get used to the -5F temperatures we currently have at Hermit Lake. The clear skies are providing ample visual clues as to what transpired in the ravines yesterday and overnight, and the morning sunshine is illuminating the plumes of blowing snow over areas such as Hillman’s Highway and the Lip. While the most significant loading and peak instability are probably behind us at this time, this morning’s 65mph (105kph) NW winds are providing sufficient wind loading to keep avalanche danger ratings elevated today. We do expect wind speeds to diminish slightly, but so far this morning they haven’t shown any signs of doing so. Additionally, cold temperatures will limit the amount of solar gain that can take place, so newly developed slabs will stay elastic, snappy, and reactive to additional loads. In Tuckerman, the areas of most concern are from the Sluice through the Center Bowl. A notable feature of this area is the absence of recent avalanche activity, as well as the low drifting snow that continues to pour down through these locations. Hillman’s also has a significant snow plume blowing over the top, which keeps the threat of natural avalanche activity present. On the northern side of Tuckerman, recent avalanche activity has helped remove some of the threatening snow from the gullies. With that said, understand that not every bit of unstable slab was cleaned out, and some reloading has occurred. These areas are at the upper end of the Moderate rating. Should you find yourself traveling in these areas you should expect new slabs to be reactive to human triggering.
Huntington Ravine also has a few “head’s up” locations, but on the whole this ravine presents a lesser avalanche danger than Tuckerman. We do believe it would be possible for you to trigger an avalanche in several locations, hence the Moderate rating. The bottom of South Gully, above the ice bulge in Central, and above the ice in Odell are just a few examples of where you can find potentially unstable snow. In the northern gullies it is the lower to middle sections that will pose the greatest threat.
A couple other noteworthy thoughts for this morning come to mind. First, the Escape Hatch and Little Headwall are both posted at Low avalanche danger. I personally don’t think either of these locations are quite ready to be used as descent routes. The Escape Hatch would be an epic bushwack, and the Little Headwall still has some open water and ice bulges. Remember, it’s still recovering from a 100% meltout at the start of January. Second, we have a hefty winter storm heading our way for Wednesday. I’ll go out on a limb and predict over a foot of snow, maybe 14-16″ by Thursday morning–but I’m not a meteorologist so don’t blame me when we only get a dusting! Hire the neighborhood kids to shovel your driveway and book your hotel room for Tuesday night so you don’t need to make the drive in the middle of the storm.
- Safe travel in avalanche terrain requires training and experience. This advisory is just one tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. You control your own risk by choosing where, when, and how you travel.
- Anticipate a changing avalanche danger when actual weather differs from the higher summits forecast. For more information contact the Forest Service Snow Rangers, the AMC at the Pinkham Notch Visitor Center, or the caretakers at Hermit Lake Shelters or the Harvard Cabin.
- This advisory expires at midnight. A new advisory will be issued tomorrow.
Jeff Lane, Snow Ranger
USDA Forest Service
White Mountain National Forest
(603) 466-2713 TTY (603) 466-2856